Regional Roundup for Week of 7.26.18

Monday’s dam breach in southern Laos which killed scores and displaced thousands is a man-made disaster that could have been prevented by better weather forecasting and improved dam management. This is one of many shocks to Laos’s plans to become the “Battery of Southeast Asia” to hit the country this year. In March 2018, Thailand suspended the purchase of power from the Pak Beng dam, a major Mekong mainstream dam in Laos yet to be built. Renewable energy generation options such as solar, wind, biogas now offer viable alternatives to Lao hydropower in Thailand and Vietnam, traditionally Laos’s major export markets. And China, with a glut of electricity in its own southwest regions, seeks to sell that power to markets in Southeast Asia – this could make Lao hydropower non-competitive in the near a medium term. For more analysis, see comments from Stimson’s Brian Eyler on the dam disaster here.

EXSE FOCUS

Dozens feared dead, rescuers search for missing after Laos dam collapse –Reuters Rescuers searched in difficult conditions on Wednesday for dozens of people feared dead and hundreds missing after a dam collapsed in a remote part of land-locked Laos, one of Asia’s poorest countries, a government official said.State media showed pictures of villagers, some with young children, stranded on the roofs of submerged houses. Others showed villagers trying to board wooden boats to safety in Attapeu province, the southernmost part of the country.

Related: Laos dam collapse sends floods into Cambodia, forcing thousands to flee –The Guardian
Related: Laos Dam Collapses; Hundreds Are Missing –New York Times
Related: How a Frenzied Race to Harness the Mekong Turned Deadly –Bloomberg

Thailand moves to send poor quality plastic waste back where it came from –Mekong Eye The government of Thailand has pledged to start sending plastic scrap back where it came from as part of a crackdown on illegal waste imports. The news poses another problem for the UK’s beleaguered recycling sector and follows reports of recycling facilities in Thailand becoming overwhelmed by a surge in trash shipments since China’s ban on low-quality waste came into force. An Unearthed analysis of customs data revealed that UK waste exports to Thailand shot up in the first four months of this year: from just 123 tonnes in January to April 2017 to 6,810 tonnes. //Will this be an action other countries in the region take to crack down on plastic waste imports?

Lao Citizens Displaced by China-Linked Railroad Project Still Not Paid For Losses –Mekong Eye Thousands of Lao families ordered from their land and homes to make way for a high-speed railway linking the country with China are still waiting for compensation promised by their government though construction has surged ahead, sources in the country say. Plans now call for work on the railway to end in 2021, with Chinese companies promising completion by that date despite the challenges of boring tunnels in mountainous areas of the country’s north.

China’s ambitious plans to power Southeast Asia –Mekong Eye Meanwhile countries such as Thailand have energy shortfalls while energy-rich countries such as Laos need to sell their surplus. China believes it can help solve these problems through developing a power grid infrastructure managed by its state-owned company China Southern Power Grid (CSG). Already CSG is working with Laos to develop that country’s electricity infrastructure and it plans to create a regional power grid that will link China, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand and Cambodia.

REGIONAL RELATIONS

China donates electronic, IT equipment to Cambodia’s diplomacy institute –Xinhua China on Tuesday donated electronic and information technology (IT) equipment worth 75,500 U.S. dollars to the newly-established National Institute of Diplomacy and International Relations (NIDIR) of the Cambodian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Chinese Ambassador to Cambodia Xiong Bo delivered the equipment to Foreign Ministry under-secretary of state and NIDIR’s president Chhiv Yiseang here under the presence of Cambodian Foreign Minister Prak Sokhonn.

PM meets Speaker of Australian lower house –Viet Nam News Prime Minister Nguyễn Xuân Phúc met with Speaker of the House of Representatives of Australia Tony Smith yesterday in Hà Nội, who said his country will continue assisting Việt Nam with its development process. PM Phúc appreciated the Australian parliament leader’s visit to Việt Nam, which he said will help enhance the countries’ strategic partnership, including parliamentary relations.

 How far will Mahathir push China? –Asia Times  When Malaysia’s opposition alliance notched a historic upset election win on May 9, attention quickly turned to the prospects for various multibillion-dollar infrastructure projects outgoing premier Najib Razak entered into with China. As the opposition’s prime ministerial candidate, Mahathir Mohamad vowed greater scrutiny of China-linked projects, which on the hustings he frequently criticized for their overreliance on Chinese manpower and materials.

Laos, Myanmar enhance cooperation –Vientiane Times Minister of Foreign Affairs Saleumxay Kommasith led a delegation to visit Myanmar on July 23-24 at the invitation of the Union Minister for International Cooperation, Mr U Kyaw Tin. At their meeting in Nay Pyi Taw, the two sides said they highly valued the friendly ties and long-standing tradition of close cooperation between the two neighbouring countries, which they said had been persistently strengthened.

 Vietnam, China work to boost bilateral trade to US$100 billion mark –Nhan Dan For years, China has consistently been Vietnam’s largest trading partner and its second largest export market. To realise the US$100 billion mark in bilateral trade, the two sides should develop flexible mechanisms to promote trade promotion and support enterprises in cross-border trade. China is the largest market for many Vietnamese products and goods.

 Analysts See Close Ties in Cambodia-China Anniversary Letters –VOA Political analysts have mixed views over the state of Cambodia-China relations as the Southeast Asian nation approaches what could be a pivotal election period in the absence of the main opposition party, which was banned by the Supreme Court in November. Meas Nee, a political analyst in Cambodia, said China was becoming very close to Cambodia to advance its political and economic interests in the region, while the Cambodian leadership had more limited ambitions: staying in power. //China’s latest round of aid to Cambodia has included a $259 million loan for road construction and a $130 million military aid package.

Asean to discuss code of conduct for S. China Sea –Straits Times Asean ministers will discuss a Code of Conduct (COC) for the South China Sea next week amid concerns over China’s increasing militarisation in the area, Malaysian Foreign Minister Saifuddin Abdullah said yesterday.He said the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties (DOC) that was signed in 2002 by China and Asean does not appear to have “fangs. //Any code of conduct that China would agree to is unlikely to be legally binding.

Thai aid reaches southern Laos for dam victims –Bangkok Post Relief supplies from His Majesty the King and the government have arrived in southern Laos as more are on the way to help Laotians affected by a dam collapse. Relief supplies of His Majesty and 5,000 relief bags of the Thai government reached Pakse airport in Laos’ Champassak province by two C-130 transport planes of the Royal Thai Air Force 1am on Thursday. Two more flights from Thailand took more supplies to the neighbouring country on Thursday.

SUSTAINABILITY AND RESOURCE MANAGEMENT

 Bikes out, trees in: Hanoi tackles air pollution woes –Reuters Famed for ancient pagodas, colonial architecture and delicious pho noodle soup, Vietnam’s capital of Hanoi has another, albeit dubious, distinction: air pollution. The city of 7.7 million, where pollution last year was four times higher than the World Health Organisation (WHO) considers acceptable, is one of several Asian cities battling emissions from vehicles and industrial activity. About 7 million people die globally each year from exposure to pollution that brings diseases such as stroke and heart diseases, the WHO said in May.

Report says Indonesia ‘land swap’ plan puts forests at risk –ABC News Researchers say an Indonesian government plan to give plantation companies new lands in exchange for restoring areas they destroyed could result in more tropical forests being cut down. Spatial analysis released Tuesday by civil society groups shows 40 percent of the 921,000 hectares (3,556 square miles) designated for land swaps is natural forest. Indonesia is second only to Brazil in the amount of forest cut down in the past decade.

In Vietnam, cable car plans continue to threaten important cave system –Mongabay Since 2014, one of the world’s largest cave systems has been under threat from developers planning to construct a cable car that would carry thousands of tourists every day. Some are pointing out that this could also irreparably damage the area’s primary forests. A movement to stop the cable car reaching the area known as Son Doong cave spearheaded by Vietnamese environmentalist Huong Le has gained traction over the last 3.5 years.

Egat tackles disruption with rejig –Bangkok Post The board of the state-run Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (Egat) has approved an organisational restructuring plan to respond to disruptive technology in the power sector and stay competitive in the domestic market. The restructuring plan will trim staff to 15,000 people within five years and decrease the number of deputy governors to eight in 2019 from 13 last year, said chairman Witoon Kulcharoenwirat.

CHINA

 Chinese anti-dumping probe targets stainless steel imports from Indonesia, EU, Japan and Korea– South China Morning Post China has launched an anti-dumping probe into stainless steel imports worth US$1.3 billion, including from a privately owned Chinese mill with operations offshore, after complaints that a flood of product has damaged the local industry. The Commerce Ministry said on Monday that the investigation would target imports of stainless steel billet and hot-rolled stainless steel sheet and plate from the European Union, Japan, South Korea and Indonesia, which nearly tripled last year.

China moves to support economy amid trade tensions –BBC China is trying to support the economy as trade tensions escalate and risk spilling over into currency markets. The government will focus on introducing deeper tax cuts and step up efforts to issue special bonds for local government infrastructure plans. It comes as a trade row with the US is escalating and as annual Chinese growth slowed slightly in the second quarter. The US last week threatened to tax all of China’s imports and accused it of currency manipulation.

What Does the Apparent Trump-EU Trade Truce Mean for China? –Bloomberg Donald Trump’s surprise trade truce with the European Union has analysts asking, “What does this mean for the trade war with China?” So far there are two very different answers. One camp sees the deal between Trump and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker to suspend new tariffs while negotiating over trade as a deliberate attempt to mend fences with allies as the U.S. girds for a protracted dispute with China.

In latest rapprochement, China defense minister to visit India –Reuters Chinese Defence Minister Wei Fenghe has accepted an invitation to visit India and plans to do so by the end of this year, China said on Thursday, as a rapprochement between the two giant neighbors gathers pace. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi agreed in April to open a new chapter in ties, just months after a dispute over a stretch of their high-altitude Himalayan border rekindled fears of war.

Vaccine scandal gripping China could cause serious problems for the government –Washington Post Stories of mismanagement and regulatory violations are hardly uncommon in China. But for the past two weeks, a scandal surrounding a vaccine manufacturer has gripped the attention of millions of people across the country — and sparked dissatisfaction that could seriously damage the government’s legitimacy, experts say.

SOUTHEAST ASIA

Cambodia to probe election boycott call –Reuters Cambodia’s election organizers said on Monday they will investigate a complaint against about 30 former opposition party members for calling for a boycott of Sunday’s general election. The main opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) was dissolved last year, part of a wide-ranging crackdown by Prime Minister Hun Sen who is looking to secure his grip on power after a 2013 election which his ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) narrowly won.

Route 13 to be Improved and Maintained with World Bank Support –Laotian Times More than 500,000 people living adjacent to sections of National Road 13 will benefit from the improvements planned in the National Road 13 Improvement and Maintenance Project.The agreement for the project was signed today by the Vice Minister of Finance, Mme Thipphakone Chanthavongsa, and the World Bank Country Manager Nicola Pontara. The project will improve the condition, safety, and climate resilience of critical sections of National Road 13, Lao PDR’s most important corridor, which is integral to domestic and regional connectivity.

Malaysia aims to lower voting age to 18, says minister–Straits Times The young in Malaysia are likely to get more power after backing 93-year-old Mahathir Mohamad to topple a regime that ruled the South-east Asian nation for six decades. Malaysia is “very serious” about reducing the voting age to 18 before the next elections due by 2023, Youth and Sports Minister Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman, 25, told Bloomberg in an interview. The two-month-old Cabinet plans to ask the Attorney-General’s Office to look into what laws need to be amended, he said. //This is likely to expand Mahathir’s support base amongst registered voters because the vast majority of younger voters voted for Mahathir.

Swelling Deficits Are Southeast Asia’s Next Stability Test –Bloomberg Southeast Asian governments are staring down swelling budget deficits in the latest test for regional stability. As higher U.S. interest rates and a stronger dollar roil currencies in the region and oil prices spike, governments from the Philippines to Malaysia are facing rising debt. A less rosy growth picture also means tax revenues may come in below targets, threatening budget goals.

Rapid increase in water levels caused by extremely high rainfall from tropical storm Son-Tinh –MRC The Mekong River’s water levels have increased rapidly during the period of July 15 – 24, with a rise of over three meters in some stations along the mainstream. But they are not at the alarm level yet. For example, in the upstream part of Lao PDR in Luang Prabang, water levels had risen from 8.97 meters on 18 July to 13.32 on 23 July, a rise of slightly over four meters. A sudden increase was detected at this motoring station, with a jump from 10.85 to 13.28 meters during 21-22 July.

Philippine president signs Muslim autonomy law –Xinhua Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte signed on Thursday a Muslim autonomy law aimed at ending nearly five decades of armed conflicts in Mindanao that claimed thousands of lives, displaced millions of poor Filipinos and kept investment at bay in the southern Philippines. Presidential spokesman Harry Roque told reporters that Duterte “has just signed the Bangsamoro Organic Law (BOL) into law. BOL is originally called Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL). //This law is unlikely to stop the war against Abu Sayyaf, who has taken a more radical stance than other armed groups in Mindanao.

YUNNAN

Yunnan launches preservation project on ancient books –Xinhua Southwest China’s Yunnan Province has launched a preservation project to catalog and update their records of ancient books across the province.Professionals involved in the preservation of ancient texts, along with 51 university students, worked together during the 40-day investigation to sort and catalog the books. The project, primarily registering authors, book editions, as well as the locations of the books, was jointly organized by the Ancient Books Preservation and Conservation Association of China and the Yunnan Ancient Books Preservation Center.

This week’s new digest was curated by Kevin Rutigliano.