Regional Roundup for Week of 1.5.2017

ExSE Focus

Briefing: A Call for Strategic, Basin-wide Energy Planning in Laos – Stimson Center A new approach in Lao PDR would maintain the existing focus on exporting electricity to regional markets but also include setting a realistic target of total electricity production from a mix of sources, notably hydropower, solar, and wind. The portfolio mix would be optimized by (1) incorporating sound political, financial, environmental, and social risk analysis into the decision making process; (2) integrating multiple uses of water such as hydropower, transportation, irrigation, and flood control at a basin-wide scale in ways that addresses the needs of downstream countries; and (3) avoid building unnecessary dams in Lao PDR given the associated social and environmental risks.

Governments Must Chart a New Course for the Mekong River – International Rivers 2016 brought the worst drought in nearly a decade to the Mekong Delta. The severe drought compounded water shortages along the length of the lower Mekong River, resulting in the lowest water levels since 1926. The impacts on farmers, fishermen and agriculture throughout the Mekong Region were devastating. Fishing communities in the Tonle Sap Lake in Cambodia reported that water levels dropped by three meters, preventing the lake from completing its natural flood cycle and expanding into surrounding forests, which are vital areas for fish to spawn. In the Delta – Vietnam’s “rice bowl” – the Mekong River’s low water levels reduced its capacity to hold back seawater, resulting in saltwater intrusion up to 90 kilometers inland, which decimated rice paddies and food supplies in Southern Vietnam.

PM to pay visit to Don Sahong dam – Phnom Penh Post Prime Minister Hun Sen will visit the Don Sahong dam, which he once opposed, during a visit to Laos next week, the Foreign Ministry announced yesterday. Hun Sen and his Laotian counterpart, Thongloun Sisoulith, will preside over the inauguration of a new border checkpoint between the two nations on January 10, according to a ministry statement.//Is Hun Sen flip flopping back toward supporting Mekong mainstream hydropower now that LS2 is nearly complete and investors are gathering for the Sambor Rapids project? Still much opposition to mainstream and large dams on Mekong tributaries exists within the CPP.

Spare the Mekong –Bangkok Post (Opinion) The Prayut Chan-o-cha government made an out-of-the-blue decision that paves the way for the demolition of the Mekong River’s rocky outcrops for the sake of “improved waterway navigation”. But the plan to destroy the river’s outcrops and disrupt its ecosystem is obviously not viable for the river and must not be accepted by any countries, including Thailand.

Clearing for Lao-China Railway Begins, but Questions About the Project Still Remain – RFA Work began on the controversial Laos-China railway as crews started clearing the right-of-way in the ancient Lao city of Luang Prabang late last month, but questions over who will get the bulk of the jobs building the $6 billion project and how much people displaced by the construction will get paid still linger.//This is oversimplifying, but the Chinese Ambassador to Laos must have whispered something like this into the Lao PM’s ear, “See, Obama’s visit was a fluke. The US will never be back to Laos, it’s time to build that railroad.”

Kasy town to be relocated to make way for railway –Vientiane Times The urban centre of Kasy district in Vientiane province will be relocated to an area near the Kasy road to allow for construction of the Laos-China railway. A plot of flat land located in the Kasy road area has been allocated, requiring the relocation of about 400 houses and government offices that currently line Road 13 North.//Another  shady deal for an entire town goes down in Laos. Why not just move the railroad?

A human rights activist, a secret prison and a tale from Xi Jinping’s new China  Guardian Peter Dahlin spent 23 days in a ‘black prison’ in Beijing, where he says he was deprived of sleep and questioned with a ‘communication enhancement’ machine. Here he tells the story of his incarceration and expulsion from the People’s Republic of China.

Couple Held in China Are Free, but ‘Even Now We Live Under a Cloud’ NYT Kevin and Julia Garratt, Christian aid workers who had lived in China off and on for 30 years, are back in Canada, but say they do not feel completely safe.

Closing China’s Ivory Market: Will It Save Elephants? – NYT If the Chinese government really commits to combating the ivory trade, then the price of ivory could collapse. Criminal organizations and poachers will then abandon the business.

Myanmar Holds Officers After Video Purports to Show Police Beating Rohingya – NYT The recording, which appears to depict unarmed members of the Rohingya minority being beaten in Rakhine State, adds to pressure on the government.//ASSK cracking down too hard risks empowering the military and the Arakan army, too soft risks alienating the rest of the world. With thousands of Rohingya lives at risk, a Goldilocks solution work will unlikely bring swift relief to the Rohingya.

Malaysian aid flotilla bound for Arakan ‘not coming to create tension’ – DVB A Malaysian NGO has announced plans to send a flotilla of humanitarian aid to the stricken Rohingya population in northern Arakan State, while Burma’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has cautioned that any such shipment should be directed at assisting both Muslim and Buddhist communities in the country’s west.//The move threatens the long standing ASEAN principle of non-interference.

REGIONAL RELATIONS

Quick Take: ADB still has more muscle than the AIIB –China Economic Review It has been almost a year since the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) was formed, since it was launched in January 2016, the AIIB has approved eight projects in Oman, Myanmar, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Tajikistan and Indonesia totalling just over $1 billion. This compares to the 126 projects the ADB has approved over the course of 2016, with latest annual figures showing total investments at a record $27 billion in 2015.

A Bull Named Trump in a Shop Called China – Project Syndicate With US President-elect Donald Trump’s help, the “Chinese Century” may arrive sooner than anyone expected. By openly engaging with Taiwan, pointlessly pillorying China, and dismantling the Trans-Pacific Partnership, Trump is simultaneously provoking and empowering Asia’s rising hegemon.

Nixon’s Vietnam Treachery – NYT New evidence proves that Richard Nixon sabotaged peace talk plans in 1968, a move that may be worse than Watergate.

Why Are China’s Submarines Visiting Malaysia? – The Diplomat A brief look at how to read the latest naval engagement between the two sides.

Rex Tillerson at State: What Will He Mean for U.S.-China Relations? ChinaFile On December 13, President-elect Donald Trump’s transition team announced the selection of ExxonMobil Chief Executive Rex Tillerson as Secretary of State. We asked ChinaFile contributors to respond to the choice with a specific focus on how Tillerson might affect U.S.-China relations.

Philippines says South China Sea ruling not on agenda at ASEAN summit Channel News Asia An arbitration court ruling that rejected China’s claims to the South China sea and strained Chinese relations with the Philippines will not be on the agenda of this year’s Southeast Asian summit, a senior Philippine official said on Thursday.

All Aboard China’s ‘New Silk Road’ Express – FP China’s railway from the Pacific to London showcases the country’s turn toward Europe at a time of tension with the United States.

China Launches Lancang-Mekong Economic development initiative –Tactical Investor For centuries, the Mekong Delta region had witnessed wars and peace, and now residents on the river’s basin are seeking greater prosperity and development, while Beijing hopes to play a more pivotal role. The 1st Lancang-Mekong leaders meeting is held in Sanya on March 23. Leaders from Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam are expected to attend along with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang. Governments in the region plan to coordinate on water resources, security and development, particularly in connectivity infrastructure, production capacity, agriculture and poverty alleviation.//The article states that navigation improvements will permit river trade between Yunnan’s Simao port and Luang Prabang. The Jinghong mega-dam downstream from Simao has no navigation locks, so China’s Mekong trade terminus is in Jinghong, but most boats still use the Guanlei port further downstream close to the border with Laos.

SUSTAINABILITY AND RESOURCE MANAGEMENT

China to invest £292bn in renewable power by 2020 – Guardian World’s largest energy market looks to move from coal towards cleaner fuels. China will plough 2.5tn yuan (£292bn) into renewable power generation by 2020, the country’s energy agency has said, as the world’s largest energy market continues to shift away from dirty coal power towards cleaner fuels. The investment will create more than 13m jobs in the sector, the National Energy Administration said in a blueprint document that lays out its plan to develop the nation’s energy sector during the five-year 2016 to 2020 period.

China Punishes Polluters as Toxic Smog Swamps Northern Cities – RFA China entered 2017 with toxic smog still choking cities in the north and center of the country, in spite of anti-pollution measures that included punishments for offenders. China’s environmental protection ministry announced it had punished more than 500 enterprises and construction sites and 10,000 vehicles for breaching air pollution alert restrictions.

Decisions due on coal, gas, petroleum auctions –Bangkok Post The development of two coal-fired power plants in the South are the retirement of the Erawan and Bongkot gas blocks and the long-delayed 21^st round of new concessions for 29 petroleum are very crucial and controversial. Energy experts and operators had initially hoped that the issues would be concluded by 2017 before the military government steps down. But final decisions appear to be a long way yet due to strong opposition from villagers in the case of the power plants, and from energy activists and NGOs on the concession issue.

Environmental Justice In Thailand –Chanel News Asia (Video) The Mekong River is a source of livelihood for millions.  But a web of business deals and official corruption threaten to destroy it.  In this episode, a Thai activist and lawyer seeks to stop the construction of a dam in Laos, and defend villagers’ rights to the land and river.

Environmental issues a major concern among public in 2016 –VietNamNet Bridge The environmental disaster caused by the steel complex of Taiwanese Formosa Group discharged untreated waste water polluted four provinces in the central region, caused mass fish deaths and damaged local people’s livelihoods was just an example of environmental disaster in 2016. 2016 has been a year full of burning environmental issues, with Vietnam saying that it would not welcome foreign investors who conduct transfer pricing or cause environmental problems.

CHINA

China Rates the Best Toilets for Tourists (and Tells the Laggards to Clean Up) – NYT The country is making an effort to build, expand and renovate 100,000 toilets in scenic areas and along tourist routes.//100,000 clean tourists won’t replace blue skies and bring international tourists back to China. But it might work in Yunnan province where the air is relatively unpolluted and the public toilets rank among the worst in the developing world. 

 What All of China’s New Leaders in 2017 Will Have in Common – The Diplomat As the Party Congress looms, all those elevated will share one thing: loyalty to the center.

SOUTHEAST ASIA

The NLD should start 2017 by scrapping the Myitsone dam – MekongEye The beginning of the year is always a time of prediction and thus peak season for pundits. Twelve months ago, many pundits on Myanmar predicted the National League for Democracy-led government would, once it assumed power, quickly scrap the controversial Myitsone dam project.

Thai election won’t happen this year, legislator says – REUTERS Thailand will need to delay a planned general election until 2018 to allow time to pass the necessary laws, a member of the military government’s national assembly said on Monday.

New Year message to Thais: No elections in 2017? – InvestVine Democratic elections initially planned for this year will not happen until at least mid-2018 because the necessary legislation has to be passed first, a process that will take around 15 months, a member of the military-appointed and army-backed National Legislative

Thai leaders say general election on track for this year – DVB Thai Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan said on Wednesday a general election will be held this year after doubts were raised by a member of the national legislative assembly. Thailand’s next polls will restore civilian rule following a 2014 coup, and will be the first under a new constitution, approved in a referendum last year, that critics say will ensure military oversight of elected governments.

Welcome to Mogok, Myanmar’s mysterious mining mecca – SEA Globe Myanmar’s miners have been left with little more than scraps following years of military plunder. High in the hills of northeastern Myanmar, past a few sleepy army checkpoints on a stretch of road where mobile phones lose their signal, an ageing signpost set against a mountainous landscape reads: “WELCOME TO RUBY LAND”. This is the entrance to a little-known and seldom-visited town called Mogok, which is said to be the source of 90% of the world’s finest rubies.

How Aung San Suu Kyi is wasting Myanmar’s economic potential – SEA Globe Despite the lifting of economic sanctions on Myanmar, Aung San Suu Kyi’s government has yet to prove the country’s economy is in safe hands

Cambodians Need Somebody to Speak for Their Ghosts – FP The U.N. tribunal that just upheld Khmer Rouge convictions is slow, biased — and entirely indispensable.

Cambodian Evictees Attempt to Return Home to Borei Keila – RFA More than two-dozen residents violently evicted from their homes in Borei Keila neighborhood in the Cambodian capital of Phnom Penh five years ago met the same fate on Tuesday when they attempted to reoccupy their old homes.

PM’s attempt to ‘split’ CNRP will fail: Rainsy – Phnom Penh Post Opposition leader Sam Rainsy said that Prime Minister Hun Sen is “dreaming” if he believes he can split the leadership of the Cambodia National Rescue Party, describing deputy opposition leader Kem Sokha as his “life-long partner in the rescue of the nation”.

YUNNAN

New governor sparks controversy with verbal gaffe — GoKunming In an era where public figures are recorded, filmed and instantly scrutinized during and after every public appearance, little mistakes have a tendency to set off firestorms. This was definitely the case recently when Ruan Chengfa (阮成发) was caught on tape mispronouncing the name of the province he now governs, multiple times.

Dual high-speed railways usher in new era for Yunnan – GoKunming The Spring City, once famous for its laid-back lifestyle, made another leap toward modernity at the turn of the new year. Kunming South Railway Station, officially opened December 28, is the last stop on the Shanghai-Kunming High-speed Railway. The new railway — opened in conjunction with a separate southern line — connects Kunming with other important national transportation hubs, including Shanghai, Hangzhou, Nanchang, Changsha and Guiyang.

Heshun: Old school charm in western Yunnan GoKunming  Heshun (和顺) is located in southwest Tengchong County (腾冲县) in the far west of Yunnan. It was once an important stop on the Ancient Tea Horse Road. Today, it remains one of the better-preserved old towns in the entire province.